As War Looms, Is The US Still The Best Friend We Have?
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It’s been a tense week in the world as we watched Iran and Israel edge closer to all-out war. Meanwhile, doubt was cast over Australia’s longstanding relationship with the United States as the Pentagon called for a review of the AUKUS alliance.
As Iran and Israel continue to trade missile salvos, US President Donald Trump has announced he will decide on whether or not to approve a US attack on Iran within the next two weeks while announcing a review into the AUKUS alliance.
Israel is reportedly targeting Iranian nuclear facilities and military installations, many of which are deeply embedded in populated areas or even built deep within mountains. The two countries have been enemies for decades, since Tehran broke diplomatic ties with Israel in the early days of the Iranian revolution in 1979. In 1980, the US similarly cut ties with Iran following the US Embassy hostage crisis in Tehran. Iran’s Islamic leadership considers the US’ support of Israel a threat, referring to them as the Great Satan and Little Satan, respectively.
As part of its defence and deterrence strategy in the conflict, Iran has relied on a network of paramilitary groups dubbed the ‘axis of resistance’. It spans several Middle East countries and includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq and Houthi militants in Yemen. The ‘axis of resistance’ has been severely weakened in recent years following Israeli attacks on key facilities and assassinations of leaders and Iranian nuclear scientists.
The ongoing conflict between the two countries boiled over on 7 October 2023 when Hamas, backed by Iran and supported by Palestinian militants, launched a coordinated attack on Israel. It was the first invasion of Israeli territory since the Arab-Israeli War of 1948 and considered one of the deadliest attacks on Jews since the Holocaust. Part of the campaign included the massacre of 378 people and kidnapping of 44 people by Hamas militants that stormed the Nova Music Festival on a national Jewish holiday, igniting the ensuing war in Gaza.
As the western world and mainstream media have largely focussed on the war in Gaza, Iran and Israel have been engaged in a war of escalation, each responding to attacks by the other. As a result, countless innocent civilians and non-combatants on both sides have been killed, either by military personnel or as collateral damage in airstrikes. Earlier this week, we saw a failure in Israel’s famed Iron Dome air defence system as Iranian ballistic missiles cut through to reach their targets.
The Iron Dome is designed to defend against shorter range rocket and mortar fire. Israel depends on its Arrow II and III systems to intercept ballistic missiles; however, the sheer number of ballistic missiles being fired at once by Iran is overwhelming those capabilities. Military experts predict the deciding factor in this war will be whether or not Israel has enough interceptor missiles to outlast Iran’s stock of long-range missiles.
While President Trump contemplates US involvement in the conflict, he’s also thrown withering American-Australian relations further into question.
The United States is historically one of Australia’s strongest defence allies and trading partners, but Trump’s tariffs scheme and apparent indifference to Australia has caused Australians to lose faith in the US to act responsibly. This has been amplified by Trump cancelling his G7 meeting with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, along with the Pentagon ordering a 30-day review into the trilateral AUKUS pact between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, largely to ensure it serves their ‘America First’ agenda.
This could mean trouble for Australia’s $300 billion plan for bolstering our national defence in the Indo-Pacific by building and acquiring US-built nuclear submarines. Given Australia’s isolated and vulnerable position in the region, submarines are considered a vital resource in securing our interests against Chinese expansion.
Australia maintains a delicate geopolitical balance when it comes to straddling its diplomatic relations between the United States and China, finding itself caught between two superpowers. Australia has strong economic and cultural links to China (though questions remain about the CCP’s subversive involvement in our politics), but it also depends on the United States to assert its dominance in the Asia-Pacific and provide military assistance.
Perhaps Australia must face the reality that the United States of today is a shadow of its post-WWII glory and that we have entered a new phase of the relationship as Trump peddles his America First agenda. If he does decide to enter the United States in the Iran-Israel war, he expects allies to support him. But Australian defence minister Richard Marles recently dismissed the possibility of Australian involvement, saying that we are not part of this conflict.
As Australia (and the rest of the world) waits and wonders what comes next for the Middle East, analysts and experts suggest the decisive test of our alliance with the US will be whether or not we get involved in fighting a war with China over Taiwan. There is a very real possibility that our willingness in the review of AUKUS may work in our favour to strengthen the relationship, but that remains to be seen.
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